Suitably Flip

Hey America, Why the Long Face?

A new Fox poll brings familiar (if quizzical) news.

President Bush’s job approval rating slipped this week and stands at a new low of 33 percent approve...

Americans are more than twice as likely to rate the nation’s economy negatively as positively. Nearly 3 in 10 rate economic conditions as either "excellent" (6 percent) or "good" 22 percent, while the widespread consensus is gloomier: about 4 in 10 say the economy is "only fair" (42 percent) and another 30 percent say it is in "poor" shape. Like on most issues these days, there are clear partisan differences on the economy.

 Among Republicans, views are evenly divided between a positive rating (50 percent excellent/good) and a negative rating (49 percent only fair/poor). In contrast, almost all Democrats rate the condition of the economy negatively (85 percent only fair/poor).

With the stock market rallying, the labor market sizzling, GDP growing faster than in any other industrialized country (despite war, high oil prices, and natural disasters), all with inflation under control, it's hard to imagine a more robust economy.  More money in the hands of taxpayers has led to increased private investment, sustained wealth creation, millions of new jobs, and a far more flexible, resilient, swiftly growing economy.

I find it difficult to believe that 5 of 6 Democrats would objectively deem these conditions "only fair/poor".  I don't know whether the gulf between reality and the poll numbers is driven by media distortion of the true economic picture or by the tendency of poll respondents to equivocate "How would you rate the economy?" with "Are you angry with this administration and do you feel the economy is an area where they can be productively attacked?"

For a little historical perspective, let's consider the "misery index", an economic metric coined by Harvard economist Robert Barro in the 1970's.  (The index is calculated simply as the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate.  And higher = more miserable.)

While it's not a perfect measure, it does take into account two of the weightier economic variables that not only shape the overall health of the economy and quite directly affect consumers and wage earners, but also are notoriously difficult to keep down simultaneously.  Normally, when one goes up, the other goes down (except in periods of unsustainable bubbly growth, which explains the Clintonian anomaly), giving further support to the argument that the American economy is currently on uncommonly good footing.

Source data from miseryindex.us.  Snazzy chart by yours truly.

High five for lack of misery.

Linked at Stop the ACLU.

Comments

Hey America, Why the Long Face?

A new Fox poll brings familiar (if quizzical) news.

President Bush’s job approval rating slipped this week and stands at a new low of 33 percent approve...

Americans are more than twice as likely to rate the nation’s economy negatively as positively. Nearly 3 in 10 rate economic conditions as either "excellent" (6 percent) or "good" 22 percent, while the widespread consensus is gloomier: about 4 in 10 say the economy is "only fair" (42 percent) and another 30 percent say it is in "poor" shape. Like on most issues these days, there are clear partisan differences on the economy.

 Among Republicans, views are evenly divided between a positive rating (50 percent excellent/good) and a negative rating (49 percent only fair/poor). In contrast, almost all Democrats rate the condition of the economy negatively (85 percent only fair/poor).

With the stock market rallying, the labor market sizzling, GDP growing faster than in any other industrialized country (despite war, high oil prices, and natural disasters), all with inflation under control, it's hard to imagine a more robust economy.  More money in the hands of taxpayers has led to increased private investment, sustained wealth creation, millions of new jobs, and a far more flexible, resilient, swiftly growing economy.

I find it difficult to believe that 5 of 6 Democrats would objectively deem these conditions "only fair/poor".  I don't know whether the gulf between reality and the poll numbers is driven by media distortion of the true economic picture or by the tendency of poll respondents to equivocate "How would you rate the economy?" with "Are you angry with this administration and do you feel the economy is an area where they can be productively attacked?"

For a little historical perspective, let's consider the "misery index", an economic metric coined by Harvard economist Robert Barro in the 1970's.  (The index is calculated simply as the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate.  And higher = more miserable.)

While it's not a perfect measure, it does take into account two of the weightier economic variables that not only shape the overall health of the economy and quite directly affect consumers and wage earners, but also are notoriously difficult to keep down simultaneously.  Normally, when one goes up, the other goes down (except in periods of unsustainable bubbly growth, which explains the Clintonian anomaly), giving further support to the argument that the American economy is currently on uncommonly good footing.

Source data from miseryindex.us.  Snazzy chart by yours truly.

High five for lack of misery.

Linked at Stop the ACLU.