Newsweek's Bombshell: Democrats Prefer Democrats

Newsweek has published a poll gauging voter sentiment about a number of prospective 2008 Presidential match-ups.  At first glance, it seems to bode well for Democrats, with Edwards being unbeatable, and McCain being hopeless.  All the match-ups fell within the 4% margin of error, with the exception of Edwards' projected win over McCain.

Giuliani 48 - Clinton 47%
McCain 47% - Clinton 48%

Giuliani 47% - Obama 45%
McCain 44% - Obama 46%

Giuliani 45% - Edwards 48%
McCain 43% - Edwards 48% 

The last question in the poll, however, reveals a curious imbalance among the respondents, with 37% identifying themselves as Democrats and only 26% as Republicans.  Patrick Ruffini notes that for this imbalance to be accurate requires the Republican population to have dwindled by 30% since Election Day.

Adjusting the results to reflect the actual 2006 balance (i.e. still a strong Democratic advantage), Ruffini encounters somewhat different outcomes.

Giuliani 51.8% - Clinton 44.6%
McCain 50.5% - Clinton 45.2%

Giuliani 50.6% - Obama 42.5%
McCain 47.4% - Obama 44.4%

Giuliani 49.3% - Edwards 45.2%
McCain 47.2% - Edwards 45.9%