In Some Parallel Universe, the Speaker Of the House Is Pleased By the Good News For Her Country and Its Defenders

Even John "Abscam" Murtha, who this summer called the troop surge a "failed policy wrapped in illusion" is now forced to recognize its efficacy.  But for Nancy Pelosi, queen of the Congressional delegation whose fortunes are (as Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer eagerly point out) aligned with failure, even Murtha's well belated, begrudging recognition of military progress is an unforgivable sin.

Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), one of the leading anti-war voices in the House Democratic Caucus, is back from a trip to Iraq and he now says the "surge is working." This could be a huge problem for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other Democratic leaders, who are blocking approval of the full $200 billion being sought by President Bush for combat operations in Iraq in 2008.
...
"This could be a real headache for us," said one top House Democratic aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Pelosi is going to be furious."

To appreciate just how effective the surge has been in getting Iraq under control, consider how drastically U.S. troop fatalities have declined in the months since its implementation.  The last of the troop reinforcements arrived in Iraq in June.  Since May 31st, the monthly casualty rate has fallen by more than two thirds (no wonder Democratic Presidential candidates suddenly want to stop evaluating the war with "body counts").

There are still a few hours of November left in Iraq, but as of today, U.S. fatalities total 37 since November 1st.  Extrapolating, that rate suggests that one more American will tragically lose his life in Iraq today.  38 U.S. deaths in November would be unchanged from last month and the lowest level since March of 2006.

But that doesn't tell the whole story.

Violence in Iraq is seasonal, with some months tending to be bloodier than others.  A combined result of any number of factors (the religious calendar, seasonal climate, and who knows what else), November is typically the deadliest month of the year (with a fatality rate more than 40% higher than the rest of the year).

If you apply the appropriate seasonal adjustment to each month (based on fatality rates over the 51 months between the beginning of the war and the full implementation of the surge), you find that November 2007 has in fact been the least deadly since the war began (27, as adjusted, vs. 28 in February 2004).

This is even more encouraging news for the surge strategy, for American soldiers, for the war effort, and for our national interests.  If Pelosi is as furious as her aide fears, maybe she should focus her contemplation on what this trend portends for her country and her countrymen, not what it means for her delegation.

Better still, she can encourage her Democratic colleagues to get on the side of victory, so that those interests will no longer be at odds.